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In addition to gorgeous prom dresses, both Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue in Plaza Frontenac have great casualwear for teens that picks up on the spring 2011 trends.The '70s Are Back
This spring, teens can be seen wearing styles similar to what their mothers might've worn in the 1970s. From wide-leg pants and bohemian tops to long, flowing maxi dresses, a '70s-style casual look is definitely in right now. The spring 2011 colors - blue, coral and white - also are popular shades for these styles.

At Saks, Aly Tegethoff, a 17-year-old junior at St. Joseph's Academy, modeled two outfits that incorporated wide-leg pants. The first look included a pair of 7 For All Mankind wide-leg jeans ($178) and a white Patterson J. Kincaid blouse ($128). The second look had Tegethoff in navy blue wide-leg pants ($270) and a coral and white top ($275), both by Alice and Olivia.

Also at Saks, Courtney Brooks, a 16-year-old junior at St. Joe's, and Tierney Spence, a 17-year-old junior at Villa Duchesne, wore long dresses in styles reminiscent of the '70s. Brooks wore a coral T-Bags Los Angeles maxi dress ($195), while Spence wore a more Grecian-style blue Theory dress ($375), which looked great when paired with a Marc Jacobs scarf ($178) in her hair and a Streets Ahead belt ($265).

Smell the Roses

Beautiful floral prints are also popular for spring, whether it's on a shirt, a skirt or a dress. At Neiman Marcus, they have a great long, floral-printed Joie dress ($358, modeled by Tegethoff) that combines the '70s trend with this one.

Also at Neiman Marcus, Spence modeled a cute navy, red, white and yellow floral-printed Alice and Olivia skirt ($176) that looked great when paired with an off-the-shoulders navy blue Theory top ($95).

At Saks, Brooks modeled a great Leifsdottir short dress ($328) that, while it doesn't have a literal floral pattern, is very painterly and the mix of the colors green, purple, yellow and white make it feel floral-inspired and perfect for spring.

White-Washed

White jeans are definitely in this season, but if you don't like wearing full jeans on the warmer days that spring brings your way, there are plenty of pairs of white capris and shorts available at area stores.

White jeans, capris and shorts look great when paired with a floral-printed top. At Neiman Marcus, Brooks modeled a sleeveless navy floral-printed Rebecca Taylor top ($215) with white 7 For All Mankind jeans ($149), while Tegethoff modeled a three-quarter-sleeved light blue floral-printed Alice and Olivia bohemian-style top ($154) with white Fifteen Twenty shorts ($187).

Aside from the floral prints, pretty much any brightly-colored top will look good with white pants. At Saks, Spence modeled a great multi-colored striped Splendid top ($64) with white True Religion capris ($196).

All-white outfits are also popular looks for the warmer months. At Neiman Marcus, Brooks modeled the white 7 For All Mankind jeans with a great Trina Turk sleeveless white top ($238).

If the all-white look or white pants don't appeal to you, pairing a great white jacket or blazer with a vibrantly-colored dress is a great look for spring. At Neiman Marcus, Spence modeled an Elizabeth and James white jacket ($395) with a sleeveless coral Rebecca Taylor dress ($345).

Be sure to check out our photo gallery for pictures of Brooks, Spence and Tegethoff modeling the clothing mentioned in this article, and also check out the behind-the-scenes video, in which each girl shares her favorite spring fashion trends.

The massive Long Beach warehouse is as well stocked as any big-box discount store, filled with brand-new electronics, designer jeans, famous-label handbags and toys.

And cigarettes. Cartons and cartons of them, seemingly enough to supply a small kingdom.

There are no shoppers, however. All of the goods in this 500,000-square-foot warehouse were seized by federal agents — mostly counterfeits, along with banned items such as elephant ivory and drug paraphernalia.

Smuggling is on the rise, with seizures by U.S. Customs and Border Protection up 35% in fiscal year 2010 from 2009. And the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are the front line.

The twin ports account for about 40% of all seizures by Customs and Border Protection. That reflects their status as the nation's busiest port complex and as the main cargo gateway from Asia, whose workshops are as good at making knockoffs as they are at making the real thing.

Customs officials acknowledge that they are struggling to intercept the vast quantities of illegal goods that make their way into the ports each day, hidden among legitimate shipments of clothing, auto parts and housewares.

Thanks to technological advances such as sophisticated 3-D printers, counterfeiting iPhones, PlayStation game consoles and other goods has never been easier. Selling them has gotten easier too, as the advent of online markets such as Craigslist and EBay has allowed smugglers to bypass fences in the criminal underworld and sell directly to consumers.

Apprehending contraband shipments, meanwhile, has never been harder. About 50,000 cargo containers a day, laden with $1 billion in goods, move through the local ports' 15,300 acres of channels, wharves and terminals. Each 40-foot container is large enough to carry about 12,300 shoeboxes, 20,000 toy dolls or 6,600 dresses on hangers.

Smugglers also have gotten wiser, mixing in their wares with legitimate shipments to make detection more difficult.

"We're not seeing containers that are just filled with contraband like we used to. We're seizing smaller amounts, but we're finding it more often," said Todd Hoffman, the Customs and Border Protection director at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

In January, for instance, Customs and Border Protection officials seized 22,000 cartons of counterfeit Marlboro Light 100s and Marlboro Gold cigarettes, worth $1.1 million, that were found alongside legitimate cargo in a container with a shipping invoice that read "hang tags and hang plugs."

Authorities also have found knockoffs of True Religion and other designer jeans that had distinctively stitched pockets concealed by innocuous denim patches, or cases in which cheap handbags covered counterfeits of expensive Kate Spades and Louis Vuittons, customs officer Guillermina Escobar said.

After smugglers get their hands on the counterfeit products, they remove the disguises and sell the goods as the real thing.

"They have even begun sending the fake bags and wallets and other items separately by sea cargo containers, and sending the fake logos and decals by air freight so that they can be attached to the counterfeits later," Escobar said.

Investigators in January raided several discount stores in downtown Los Angeles, where they snared more than $10 million worth of bogus iPods and other counterfeit and stolen merchandise. The fakes arrived through the harbor as parts meant to be reassembled and labeled before being sold, said Ron Boyd, chief of the Los Angeles Port Police's 200-member force.

To intercept illegal goods, customs officials rely on both electronic scans of containers as well as physical inspections, in which they crack open containers and poke around inside. Now and then, they get lucky with a tip from an informant.

Detection efforts at all seaports, airports and border crossings were stepped up after the 9/11 terror attacks, as authorities sought primarily to prevent weapons and explosives from entering the country. As an outgrowth, they began finding more counterfeit consumer goods as well.

At the L.A. and Long Beach ports, all containers are screened with mobile scanners or pass-through machines resembling giant metal detectors, which test for radiation that might indicate the presence of explosives — or lately, problematic cargo from Japan. The machines are sensitive enough to register a false positive from something as innocuous as cat litter.

Through Customs and Border Protection's Container Security Initiative, high-risk boxes are scanned overseas, before they depart for the U.S. Currently, 58 of the world's largest seaports have agreed to allow those inspections and 95% of all high-risk shipments are being scanned at those ports, said Jaime Ruiz, a spokesman for Customs and Border Protection in Southern California.

After arriving in the U.S., 5% to 10% of containers are physically inspected for smuggled goods or other things that don't belong, according to a customs investigator who didn't want to be identified because he wasn't authorized to speak publicly.

This is the Smarteez work space. This is where Kepi Mngomezulu, Lethabo Tsatsinyane, Floyd Mantoane and Sibu Sithole are working on their collection to be showcased at South Africa Fashion Week.The team emerged on the social scene a few years ago, and almost instantly became darlings of our fashion industry.
They rejected the proverbial box and opted for a creative take on fashion.

Smarteez fast became popular for their DIY dress sense, informed by an amalgamation of the old and new - contemporary and vintage, in fashion speak.

Their collection, called Colour Blocking, is about creating fashion that will appeal to their peers .

O Magazine fashion editor Robyn Cooke attributes their popularity to optimism: "They reacted to, rather than reflected on, the flat economic and political environment with a unique and personal perspective."

Mngomezulu agrees: "We are living out people's dreams."

"We represent freedom," adds Tsatsinyane, who is dressed in a white pleated shirt and red chinos. "People are afraid to express themselves. We do that with clothing."

The Smarteez' non-conformity is vividly illustrated by Sithole's recent quote in Dazed and Confused magazine.

"I was born into the free world. And some people accuse me of taking my freedom for granted. But to that I say f**k you! It is my freedom to take for granted."

They represent a generation that insists on living life freely.

After spending time with them, my understanding of the spirit and appeal of Smarteez is this: Juju and his crew say being cool is being seen at ZAR sipping on Veuve Clicquot while eating sushi off naked models.

But the Smarteez and their fans beliefs are new and different.

They say: "To hell with the Chanel bag; grandma's vintage brocade purse will do. To hell with True Religion jeans, the rugged ones will get the attention I want."

It is simple - they show us that we need not fit in. That we should take the risk and score a place at the altar of cool.

It is about what trends analyst Dion Chang, borrowing from TIME Magazine, calls "Generation Disappointment".

It is about a youth that is disgruntled by the promises of the "rainbow nation" and a "better life for all", but is one that is taking matters into its own hands to create that life by defying definition.

From this back room will probably come a fashion brand that embodies a generation that chooses optimism and non-conformity in the face of a rainbow nation dream that they see in shades of black, white and grey.

Retailers from American Eagle Outfitters to Bloomingdale's are betting that women are ready to shed skinny jeans for a return to flared styles, a change that may firm up more than sagging denim sales.“The fashion shift is coming,” said Christine Chen, an apparel retail analyst at Needham & Co. in San Francisco. “Once the bottom changes, your tops are wrong. It's a whole new reason for the consumer to spend.”Form-hugging denim, around since the middle of the last decade, boosted jeans purchases during the recession with styles like J. Crew's “matchstick.” Now the novelty has worn off, with sales of women's premium denim sliding more than 6 percent last year to $1.36 billion, according to Port Washington, N.Y.-based NPD Group.
Upscale department stores such as Bloomingdale's aim to buck that trend with designer jeans from J Brand resembling upside down martini glasses for $185. If women buy in, retailers and jean makers such as True Religion Apparel may have just the trend to revive demand in the $13 billion U.S. market, helping to offset price increases spurred by record cotton costs.

“It's been a hit,” said Stephanie Solomon, women's fashion director at Bloomingdale's.

“We've all been wearing skinnies or jeggings for too long. It's a reason to buy.”

Flares have fueled denim sales this spring and are outselling skinny jeans, Solomon said. The style, which showed up on runways last year, has also reached mass-market retailers such as Pittsburgh-based American Eagle, which unveiled a “vintage flare” this spring for $49.50. True Religion, based in Vernon, Calif., offers a dozen flared styles for as much as $319.

Fashion had focused on slimmer shapes since the mid-1990s, when women's magazines began looking more to Kate Moss than Cindy Crawford, said Lourdes Font, a professor of art history at the Fashion Institute of Technology in New York. Skinnies, leggings and jeggings (leggings that look like jeans) have left designers with nowhere else to go but bigger.

“It's at the very limits of physical reality,” Font said. “The only other thing tighter is your own skin.”

The flare revival itself could make much of women's old wardrobes obsolete, Chen said, because pants often spur other trends. Flowing tops and shirt-dresses came into being to compensate for the ultra-skinny. Wide legs will usher in an era of shorter and tighter blouses, sweaters and jackets, Chen said.

Footwear will change too, said Amy Noblin, an apparel-chain analyst for Weeden & Co. in Greenbrae, Calif. Skinny jeans pair well with boots, propelling sales past $5 billion last year and sparking an explosion in brands such as Ugg.

Bell bottoms, instead, hide much of the foot and may curb the appeal of today's ubiquitous knee-high boots. That could lead to a renaissance in footwear with flat soles such as sandals or platforms, Solomon said.

The wide leg may also gain acceptance faster than skinny because it's more flattering and many women still have a flare or two in their closets, Noblin said.

“People don't have to go back too far in their lifetime to remember the last time they wore a pair of flare jeans, which makes me think this is an embraceable, democratic trend,” Noblin said.

Still, a fashion shift of this magnitude won't be a boon for every retailer. While San Francisco-based Gap also is offering flares for $69.50, it may have difficulty connecting with shoppers because it's known more for basics and not the “hippie chic” look that's spurring this trend, Chen said.

“This is right up our alley,” Louise Callagy, a spokeswoman for Gap, said when asked how the retailer is likely to fare with the new trend. “Gap has always done best when it participates in culture, and flare jeans and pants are an example of that.”

Designers are confident, too. Premium denim purveyor James Jeans, found at such luxury stores as Barney's New York, has touted jeans with legs as wide as 22 inches, more than double a skinny cut.

“This was overdue,” said founder James Chung, whose Los Angeles-based company is offering half-a-dozen varieties of flare pants this season. “You can only have so many skinny jeans in your wardrobe.”

Retailers from American Eagle Outfitters to Bloomingdale's are betting that women are ready to shed skinny jeans for a return to flared styles, a change that may firm up more than sagging denim sales.

"The fashion shift is coming," said Christine Chen, an apparel retail analyst at Needham & Co. in San Francisco. "Once the bottom changes, your tops are wrong. It's a whole new reason for the consumer to spend."

Form-hugging denim, around since the middle of the last decade, boosted jeans purchases during the recession with styles like J. Crew's "matchstick." Now the novelty has worn off, with sales of women's premium denim sliding more than 6 percent last year to $1.36 billion, according to Port Washington, N.Y.-based NPD Group.

Upscale department stores like Bloomingdale's aim to buck that trend with designer jeans from J Brand resembling upside down martini glasses for $185. If women buy in, retailers and jean makers such as True Religion Apparel may have just the trend to revive demand in the $13 billion U.S. market, helping to offset price increases spurred by record cotton costs.

"It's been a hit," said Stephanie Solomon, women's fashion director at Bloomingdale's. "We've all been wearing skinnies or jeggings for too long. It's a reason to buy."

Flares have fueled denim sales this spring and are outselling skinny jeans, Solomon said. The style, which showed up on runways last year, has also reached mass-market retailers such as Pittsburgh-based American Eagle, which unveiled a "vintage flare" this spring for $49.50. True Religion, based in Vernon, Calif., offers a dozen flared styles for as much as $319.

Fashion had focused on slimmer shapes since the mid-1990s, when women's magazines began looking more to Kate Moss than Cindy Crawford, said Lourdes Font, a professor of art history at the Fashion Institute of Technology in New York. Skinnies, leggings and jeggings (leggings that look like jeans) have left designers with nowhere else to go but bigger.

"It's at the very limits of physical reality," Font said. "The only other thing tighter is your own skin."

The flare revival itself could make much of women's old wardrobes obsolete, Chen said, because pants often spur other trends. Flowing tops and shirt-dresses came into being to compensate for the ultra-skinny. Wide legs will usher in an era of shorter and tighter blouses, sweaters and jackets, Chen said.

Joe’s Jeans Inc. (JOEZ), headquartered in Los Angeles, California, is an apparel company best known as a premium women’s denim brand. Customers praise JOEZ's excellent fit, which is a result of offering multiple hip-to-waist ratios in different styles. However, the company is much more than a women's premium denim brand. JOEZ also has a growing men's denim business as well as non-denim bottoms, tops, and jackets for both men and women. In addition, JOEZ has license agreements in place for handbags and belts. JOEZ competes with all the major premium denim brands and the high-end casual apparel designers in the non-denim categories.JOEZ sells through multiple distribution channels including department stores, specialty stores, and its own retail stores. As part of its direct-to-consumer strategy, JOEZ has opened 17 retail stores over the past few years and now has 4 full price stores and 13 outlet locations with 9 additional outlet stores planned for 2011.When the company announced fourth quarter and fiscal year 2010 earnings on February 10th, the stock was punished, falling 25% on the day. Ultimately, the stock bottomed on March 23 at $0.85, or 43% below the pre-earnings level of $1.50 per share.
While 2010 revenue grew 23% versus 2009 and JOEZ has grown the top-line at an annual rate of over 20% since 2005, there were questions regarding fourth quarter 2010 revenue. At $23.6mm, Q4 2010 revenue fell 7% versus 2009. This decrease was due to weakness in the wholesale women’s channel. Wholesale as a whole fell 17% in the quarter despite the men’s wholesale business experiencing 44% growth. On the conference call, CEO Marc Crossman suggested that the female customer “looked to new fabrics as the catalyst for her next purchase” and JOEZ “did not capitalize on this trend with the right offerings of cords, pontes, and super-stretch fabrics.”

While changes in trends are always a risk in the apparel industry, JOEZ has responded by re-vamping their summer and fall offerings. In addition, the women’s wholesale business is becoming an increasingly smaller part of the overall revenue as the men’s business grows, although it still made up 67% of 2010 revenue (down from 75% in 2009). It’s worth noting here that the retail business in 2010 grew 173% as the number of stores increased from six to 17.

This stock reaction was extreme, and even with a slight rebound to $0.92 per share, JOEZ is trading at a depressed level that makes it a compelling investment. With a market capitalization of $59mm, JOEZ is trading at 0.9x book value. Although there is no perfect comparable company, the best comparison is probably to True Religion (TRLG), which trades at a book value of 2.3x. Broadening the comparable universe note that The Gap (GPS) trades at 3.3x, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) at 2.6x, Volcom (VLCM) at 2.0x, and VF Corp (VFC) at 2.7x. This data supports the idea that JOEZ may be oversold.

Of course, book value is not the only parameter to consider. On an enterprise value to sales basis, JOEZ trades at 0.5x trailing revenue versus True Religion at 1.2x. Examining EBITDA or earnings multiples provide comparisons that are difficult to interpret given different cost structures and tax rates. It is difficult to point to any specific multiples to quantify the amount by which JOEZ is undervalued. Rather, one needs to examine the sequential gross margin trends and targets, understand the retail strategy and how it will positively impact sales and margins, and realize that the weakness in the women’s wholesale channel is temporary. With nine additional retail outlets opening in 2011, an increasing focus on eCommerce as another direct-to-consumer channel, and the ability to adapt to fashion trend changes, JOEZ has many ways to grow.

While at a market capitalization of $59mm JOEZ is undervalued, there are no-near term catalysts. Rather, JOEZ needs to successfully execute its strategy and as it does, its valuation should increase materially. In the interim, as a small cap company with significant retail ownership, JOEZ stock will experience volatility. This may account for some of the downward price pressure post-earnings.

Additionally, there is no guarantee that JOEZ will successfully execute its strategy. The markets in which JOEZ operates are very competitive and changes in fashion trends are hard to predict and can materially impact sales. However, all these risks and more are currently factored into JOEZ's share price, resulting in a compelling risk/reward proposition for long-term investors with the patience to let management execute on their multi-faceted strategy.